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Post-Flop Play: Folding Big Pairs
Falling in love with a premium pre-flop hand cost me a lot of money when I first started playing hold'em. I have aces, kings or queens...They must be best. Big mistake. Aces heads-up are cracked around 15% of the time if a hand goes to showdown. Kings lose 20% of the time when heads-up while queens are beaten 23% of the time. Playing jacks (26%) and tens (30%) are even worse choices. In a three-way pot none of these pairs are better than a 62% favorite to win and that means that aces get beat 38% of the time and the other big pairs play even worse in a multi-way pot. While big pairs look quite good pre-flop, unless they improve on the flop they are only one pair, the second worst overall hand ranking in poker. A single pair only beats a high card and is beaten by two-pair, three of a kind (either a set or trips), a straight, a flush, a full-house, quads and a straight flush. Clearly, it is important to know when to get away from a big pair. Let's look at some examples.
Example 1: The Raggedy Board
You have a Qh-Qd pre-flop on the button. There were two limpers and a raise in front of you and you decide to raise, doubling the raise in front. One limper folds the other calls and the raiser calls. The flop comes 2s-7c-9h. The action is on the limper who is a loose passive pre-flop player and passive post-flop. He checks. The first raiser makes a small probing bet of about one-third the pot. You decide to call, pretty sure your queens are good at this point. The action returns to the limper who re-raises to two-thirds the current pot. The raiser folds and the action is now on you.
Because your heads-up opponent is loose he may enter the pot with any two cards. He has a wide range from big pairs to any two suited cards. He might enter a pot pre-flop with a suited 7-2, 7-9 or even a 9-2. Small and middle pairs are also within his range, from 9-9 to 2-2 are not outside the realm of possibility. His check-raise announced loud and clear that he had a hand of some sort. Because he is passive post-flop, a check-raise in this case represents two-pair or a set. You have 2 outs to a set making you about a 10:1 so the pot must offer you a price of 10:1 or better to continue. The pot is offering around 3:1 so continuing is almost always a mistake. The wise choice here is to lay-down your big pair and wait for a better opportunity.
Example 2: A Textured Board
Once again you wake up with Qh-Qd in middle position. There is a limper in front of you and you raise to four times the big blind, one bet larger than your standard three times the big blind raise to punish the limper in front. The action folds to the small blind who calls and the limper calls. You are now in a three-way pot. The limper is a tight, passive player on all streets while the small blind is a loose, aggressive player pre-flop and tight, aggressive post-flop. The flop comes Tc-Jc-Ks. The small blind opens with a bet of half the pot. The limper calls so no information here. You have a pair and a backdoor straight draw and you decide to think about where you stand in this hand.
There is a club flush draw on the board. If either of your opponents hold an A-Q there is a made straight and if that A-Q happens to be suited in clubs, unlikely but possible, there is a royal draw as well should the Kc show up on the turn or river. If one of your opponents hold a Q-K your queens are crushed. There are set possibilities, two-pair possibilities in addition to the straight and flush possibilities and there is a c-bet from a tight-aggressive post flop player and a call from a tight-passive player behind him. Your queens give you an up and down straight draw giving you 2 outs to a set, which must be discounted completely because your set loses to a straight of flush and 8 outs to a straight but again you must discount those outs because only one will give you the nut straight and it loses to a flush. All things considered I see 5 douts for the queens making you a 5:1 dog to improve your queens. The pot must offer 5:1 or better for you to continue here. The pot is offering 3:1 making your play, should you decide to call, unprofitable. This is a time to muck your big pair and wait for a better opportunity.
Multiple Decisions
One piece of your decision includes the cards as they lay on the board. What can beat your hand, the probability for improving your hand and the odds offered by the pot in relation to the bet you must make to continue. The other part of your decision is how your opponent plays. In both of these examples the bets made by your opponents announced big hands or big draws. If you fail to take that into consideration then your profitability at the poker table will be limited. If, in example 1, your opponent was loose-aggressive you may want to consider implied odds and see one more street before mucking an unimproved hand. In the second example, if either of your opponents are loose-passive you might be able to push one or both of them off better hands with an aggressive raise. But, in general, your best course of action when holding a big pair and facing an aggressive bet is to simply wait for a better opportunity and muck your hand.
About the Author
Roger Fischel began playing poker with his friends in high school. Seven Card Stud and Five Card Draw were the games of choice back then. Over the years, Roger turned to Texas Hold 'em as his game of choice. He plays both limit and no-limit hold 'em regularly. During a long career as a teacher, Roger learned the value of sharing what he knows with others as a way to give back to the community in which he shares, thus, Rags to the River Poker was born. Roger recommends online poker tracking software for improving one's game. He also offers a listing of online poker sites which welcome US players.
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